The problem
Inventory-backed lending and warehouse-receipt finance live or die on one question: what is this grain actually worth, here, today? Most books are marked to a national or stale reference price. But Nigerian grain prices are violently regional — the same tonne of maize traded at very different prices across the 67 markets we track in July (real), and 2026's maize saw price swings above 20% within the year. Mark collateral to the wrong number and your loan-to-value is fiction until the day it becomes a loss.
What you do with Lokoja
- Mark every inventory position to the median price in its actual local market, refreshed monthly — not a national average.
- Set advance rates by region using month-on-month volatility per market: calm markets earn higher LTVs, jumpy ones get a haircut.
- Use corridor economics as a liquidity check: collateral is only good if it can be moved and sold at margin — net-of-haulage spread tells you whether it can.
The metrics you'll watch
- Local mark vs booked valuation — the gap is your hidden exposure.
- MoM price volatility by market — your advance-rate dial.
- Corridor net spread — can this collateral reach a buyer profitably?
Decisions it powers
LTV and advance-rate setting per region; early-warning triggers when a market moves against a concentrated position; provisioning grounded in observed local prices; where to grow the agri book confidently because you finally have data coverage there.
The payoff
On a ₦2B inventory-financed book, catching a 15–20% regional price decline one month earlier than a stale mark would is worth ₦60M–120M in avoided loss and provisioning (illustrative). The bigger prize: an alternative data layer that lets you lend where competitors can't price the risk.
Numbers marked real come from our engine's July 2026 data. Numbers marked illustrative show the shape of the return — we'll compute yours from your own volumes on a call.